Why does Russia provoke NATO states?

30.05.2024

On May 21, a draft decree from the Russian Ministry of Defense suggested changes to the sea borders surrounding islands in the Gulf of Finland and the exclave of Kaliningrad. This proposal marks a significant shift from the existing borders established during the Soviet era in January 1985.

The decree, which was first brought to public attention on Tuesday, has been covered extensively by Russia’s Tass news agency and other media outlets. According to these reports, the draft outlines plans to update maritime boundaries better to reflect Russia’s current strategic and geopolitical interests.

Russian newspapers published the following articles: “Estonia and Lithuania are panicking: Russia wants to change borders on the Baltic Sea – how and why.”
“The Finns are terrified: Russia plans to correct the mistake of the USSR by revising the maritime border. What does Helsinki have to say about it?”

Russian media swiftly reported on the decree, emphasizing the anxiety it has sparked among neighboring countries. Many regional observers view the draft as a potential precursor to broader territorial claims by Russia. The Gulf of Finland and the Baltic Sea are strategic areas, and any changes to their borders are seen as having profound implications for regional security.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb has emphasized that “Finland acts as always: calmly and based on facts”. The Lithuanian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Gabrielius Landsbergis, has called Russia’s draft decree “a hybrid operation is underway, this time attempting to spread fear, uncertainty, and doubt about their intentions in the Baltic Sea.”

 

“The fabricated claim is aimed not only at the Russian audience but also at, for example, the Chinese. European democracies, including Finland and Lithuania, do not believe these assertions. While being in the right offers little comfort to the Finns and Lithuanians, it is now imperative for their governments and the defence alliance NATO to take a firm  response,” writes Lauri Nurmi in his Iltalehti article.

Notably, Aleksanterinliitto Ry, an organization of Russians residing in Finland advocating for open borders with Russia, has chosen not to address the topic of Russia’s proposed sea border changes.

The draft decree disappeared from the site on the evening of the same day, May 21.

On Wednesday, May 22, TASS, RIA Novosti, and Interfax released reports citing a military-diplomatic source who stated that Russia “has not had and does not have” any intentions to revise the width of territorial waters, the economic zone, the continental shelf along the mainland coast, or the state borderline in the Baltic Sea.

Russian border guards remove buoys from Narva River, prompting Estonian response

Estonian Twitter has reacted with a meme a buoy was attached to the hand of the looter (identified as Chef Zhenya) from the Russian-backed riots in 2007, also known as the Bronze Night. The photographer Liis Treimann received the Press Photo of the Year award for this photo.

On the night of May 23, the Russian border guard removed buoys from the Narva River that had been placed in Estonian waters to mark the shipping lane. The Estonian Police and Border Guard Board is now awaiting explanations and the return of the buoys from the Russian side.

On the night of May 23, the Russian border guard removed buoys from the Narva River that had been placed in Estonian waters to mark the shipping lane. The Estonian Police and Border Guard Board is now awaiting explanations and the return of the buoys from the Russian side.

According to Eerik Purgel, head of the border guard bureau of the Ida Prefecture, Estonia and Russia traditionally install buoys in the Narva River every spring to delineate the shipping lane. This year, however, Russia communicated its disagreement with the locations of about half of the planned 250 floating markers. Despite this, Estonia placed the light buoys in Estonian waters based on the State Border Act and the locations agreed upon by border representatives in 2022. The first 50 buoys were installed in the Narva River on May 13.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Russia’s temporary chargé d’affaires on Friday, May 24, due to the border incident on the Narva River on Thursday.

Around 3 AM on Thursday night, Estonian border guards detected activity indicating that Russian border guards had started removing the floating markers. Throughout the night, 24 buoys were taken out, some of which were among the disputed markers.

 

Police chief Belitchev stated that in 2023, the Russian Federation announced its disagreement with the locations of buoys installed in the Narva River to mark the shipping lane. However, no explanations were provided. The buoys had been in the same locations for years.

It is important to mention, that in 1991, Estonia restored its independence, making the former administrative boundary with Russia the de facto international border. Formal recognition and delimitation began in 1992. Estonia wanted the border based on the 1920 Treaty of Tartu, which Russia rejected. By 1995, a border, mostly along the former Soviet administrative boundary, had been agreed upon, with some territorial exchanges. In 2005, a border agreement was signed but not ratified due to disputes over treaty references. Negotiations resumed in 2012, and a new deal was signed in 2014 without disputed preambles, but ratification has stalled due to strained relations. As of this date, neither country has ratified the treaty.

On May 23, the border guards of the Russian Republic of Karelia have received new equipment to more effectively monitor the border with Finland, according to several Russian media outlets aligned with the Kremlin. Rossiiskaja Gazeta reports that the purpose of the “airships” is to prevent illegal immigration to Finland. However, videos from the Russian state-run Rossiya 1 channel show that these airships are actually fixed balloons tethered to the ground.

There have also been reports of fixed-ball sightings in Estonia, where they were observed at the Estonian-Russian border in Narva last week.

According to the Estonian public broadcasting company ERR, the border guard spotted a solid ball in the air on the Russian side of the border, marked with the letter Z, a symbol in Russia associated with the war in Ukraine.

Russia’s recent actions, including removing buoys in the Narva River, proposing changes to maritime borders, and deploying surveillance equipment, might serve several strategic purposes (based on multiple sources):

These actions help Russia maintain and expand its influence, testing the limits of international tolerance and response.

Screenshots are from sources used in the story. The infographic was created by Propastop’s editors.