On January 24, Russia officially accused Ukraine of being responsible for the downing of a military transport aircraft (IL-76), reportedly carrying 65 captured Ukrainian soldiers who were en route to participate in a planned prisoner exchange. This incident swiftly became a focal point in Russian propaganda in the ensuing days. In this article, we will take a closer look at how Russia used the crashed IL-76 in its propaganda.
Russian Officials’ Reactions
Russian Andrei Kartapolov, a member of Russia’s parliament and a retired general, told the SHOT news outlet, that operators of Ukrainian surface-to-air missile systems couldn’t mistake transport planes for military planes or helicopters as targets. “It was done deliberately to sabotage the prisoner exchange,” Kartapolov said of the downing. He said a second Russian Il-76 transport plane carrying around 80 Ukrainian soldiers to the exchange had managed to turn around. Kartapolov, who has close links to the Russian defence ministry, said the plane had been downed by three missiles of either U.S. or German manufacture.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called for a meeting of the U.N. Security Council and said Russia sought to establish “the reasons behind the Ukrainian criminal act”. Russian state media TASS reported that France turned down this request.
Reactions from the Russian Media
Margarita Simonyan shared a purported list of Ukrainian prisoners of war on the IL-76, emphasizing the supposed pre-approval of the POW lists. In a subsequent Telegram post, she disputed the authenticity of the reported release of 16 POWs, labelling it a “Ukrainian fake” and suggesting that the earlier information about releases might be inaccurate.
Colonel Khodarenok suggests in his Gazeta.ru article that the decision to target the Il-76 “was made at the highest levels of the Ukrainian military hierarchy to blame Russia.” He also claims the likely system used in the attack was the Patriot air defense system, designed for effective engagement of targets at extended ranges. 
In an interview with KP.ru, Russian Federation Senator Vladimir Dzhabarov, a former FSS officer, asserts that Ukraine has made a serious error by downing the Il-76 with prisoners. Dzhabarov contends that Ukrainian President Zelensky may face significant challenges on the international stage as a result. Dzhabarov suggests that the West needs to confront the uncomfortable truth of Ukraine allegedly harming its prisoners of war. He goes on to caution Ukrainians still held in Russian captivity, urging them to consider the risks before deciding to return to their homeland.
Military analyst Andrey Koshkin asserts in his AIF.ru article, that the incident dealt a significant blow to the Kyiv authorities, both internationally and domestically. Koshkin notes that the Ukrainian leadership, having initially claimed victory, is now grappling with the aftermath of what he describes as a fiasco. The analyst suggests that the authorities are now resorting to internal propaganda, attributing the incident to Russian forces.
Russian liberal Yulia Latynina has echoed Moscow’s claims about Ukrainian prisoners on the downed IL-76. In a Twitter post, she asserted, “There were Ukrainian prisoners on the Il-76 that crashed near Belgorod. Two planes were carrying prisoners from Zhukovsky to Belgorod; the one that landed safely was in Taganrog. It was supposed to be part of a 192/192 exchange.”
Responses from Ukraine and Estonia
In response to Russia’s claims, Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine’s military intelligence agency is investigating the fate of the POWs but did not confirm their presence on the plane. Zelenskyy criticized Russia, accusing them of playing with the lives of Ukrainian prisoners and the emotions of society. He also announced that Ukraine will demand an international investigation into the plane crash. Ukraine’s Chief Ombudsman, Dmytro Lubinets, revealed that some of the individuals listed had already been part of previous prisoner exchanges. Ukrainian media outlet Suspilne analyzed the list, confirming that many names had been previously mentioned as POWs or missing persons, with some appearing in Russian propaganda videos.
Ukrainska Pravda reported that the plane was carrying S-300 missiles, citing its sources in the Ukrainian military.
Estonian security expert Rainar Saks has highlighted the improbability of Russia using an IL-76 for transporting prisoners, citing its limited fleet and the aircraft’s valuable flight hours. Saks notes that the traditional means of transportation for prisoners in Russia involve trains or buses. The recent crash of an IL-76 heading northeast after takeoff near the Ukrainian border is seen as lacking geographical necessity for prisoner transport, suggesting a potential Russian attempt to pressure Ukraine. Given Russia’s recent air defense failure and the subsequent embarrassment, conflicting information has surfaced. Russia released a list claiming deceased Ukrainian prisoners from the crashed plane, but verification revealed at least 17 had been previously exchanged. Photos from the crash site show few bodies, though Ukraine hasn’t confirmed the absence of prisoners. The assertion that the plane carried S-300 missiles, which circulated in Ukrainian media, remains unconfirmed, and Ukraine hasn’t officially confirmed any attack on the aircraft.
MH17 Trial Verdict and Russian Accusations Against Ukraine
It is good to remember that in 2021 Russia took Ukraine to court over the MH17 plane crash. In the complaint, Moscow blamed Ukrainian authorities for the deaths of 298 people aboard a Boeing 777 that was taken out of the sky by a ground-air missile system in July 2014, saying Kyiv refused to close airspace over war-torn eastern Ukraine.
The Hague District Court has pronounced Russians Igor Girkin and Sergey Dubinsky, along with Ukrainian Leonid Kharchenko, guilty of downing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 on July 17, 2014, with a Russian Buk missile. The Boeing 777, en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, crashed, resulting in the tragic deaths of all 298 individuals on board. The verdict was officially declared on November 17, 2022.
Russia’s accusations strategically aim to shift blame onto Ukraine, portraying them as responsible for the tragedy. The suggestion of intentional targeting is meant to cast doubt on Ukrainian military competence, painting them as potentially irresponsible and jeopardizing international agreements. Through diplomatic channels, led by Foreign Minister Lavrov, Russia seeks global attention to frame Ukraine as the aggressor in this incident. Margarita Simonyan’s dissemination of a list of prisoners and disputing releases plays a crucial role in an information warfare strategy, shaping the narrative and discrediting Ukrainian claims. Overall, the overarching goal of Russian statements is to influence public opinion, garner support for their perspective, and depict President Zelenskyy as grappling with challenges on the international stage.
The used images are screenshots from the referenced pages.
