On September 26, 2022, a sequence of covert bombings took place, followed by underwater gas leaks, affecting the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipelines. These pipelines were constructed for the purpose of conveying natural gas from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea and are primarily controlled by Gazprom, a Russian state-owned gas company. The identities of those responsible for the sabotage and the reasons behind their actions continue to be subjects of discussion and speculation. Among the countries behind the bombing, many countries were named, including Estonia.
A year later, shortly before 2 a.m. on Sunday (October 8) a sudden loss of pressure was detected by Gasgrid Finland and Estonian gas network operator Elering, who manage the BalticConnector pipeline. In addition to the pipeline, an overnight incident between Saturday, October 7, and Sunday, October 8, also resulted in damage to a cable owned by Estonian telecommunications company Elisa, adding another layer of complexity to the unfolding situation. BalticConnector runs for 77 kilometers between Paldiski in Estonia and Inkoo in Finland. The pipeline was launched in early 2020 and construction cost over €300 million.
On Tuesday, October 10, Heidi Soosalu, a seismologist at the Estonian Geological Service, made a statement regarding the recent events. She indicated that neither Estonian nor Finnish seismic monitoring stations had detected any signs of explosions over the weekend.
The research institute Norsar, situated in Kjeller just outside Oslo, has officially verified the occurrence of an incident. According to VG, Norsar’s records indicate the detection of a probable explosion along the Finnish coast of the Baltic Sea at 01:20 local time in Finland on October 8, 2023.
Reactions on Both Sides of the Gulf of Finland
Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo addressed the nation’s parliament, shedding light on the situation surrounding the damaged gas pipeline and related communication cable disruptions. According to Orpo, the gas pipeline is located within Finland’s economic waters, while the disruption to the communications cable likely occurred within Estonia’s exclusive economic zone. He further emphasized that, based on available information, the gas leak was not a result of regular usage or a change in pressure.
Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur expressed, “The evidence we have gathered from the pipeline tells us that the damage couldn’t have been caused by a diver or an unmanned submersible alone. It appears to be more extensive in nature.” He definitively ruled out the possibility of an explosion, aligning with assessments provided by seismologists earlier that day.
Minister of Foreign Affairs, Margus Tsahkna, confirmed that the damage is of a mechanical nature and thus attributable to human actions.
Tsahkna emphasized the urgent need for discussions on safeguarding and protecting critical infrastructure in the wake of this incident. He asserted that these crucial conversations must involve NATO and the European Union, underlining the gravity of the situation.
Finnish and Estonian authorities have initiated a collaborative effort to thoroughly investigate the damage inflicted upon the undersea infrastructure connecting Finland and Estonia.
“If it turns out that Russia is indeed behind the damage to the BalticConnector and communication cable, it is likely a test of our preparedness,” said Marko Mihkelson, the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Estonian Parliament, during an interview on “Esimeses stuudios” (First Studio). He added that we must hope that the investigation will provide clearer answers than the case of the Nord Stream 2 sabotage.
Speculations and stories in Russian media.
As with the Nord Stream incidents, the sabotage of the BalticConnector gas pipeline has triggered a wave of speculation concerning the potential perpetrators. This has sparked heightened debates and inquiries into who might be accountable.
One prevailing theory has pointed to a potential connection with a Russian survey vessel, the Sibiryakov, which reportedly engaged in “underwater activities” within the same vicinity during the months of June, August, and September 2023.
The Russian marine research vessel “Sibiryakov” is under suspicion for its potential involvement in the Nord Stream explosions. It is believed to be the same vessel associated with both incidents.
Russian media outlets have been actively covering this matter as well, providing their own versions of the situation and making hints.
“Earlier, the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, stated that Russia possesses information pointing to attempts by Ukraine to undermine the gas pipelines “Turkish Stream” and “Blue Stream” in the Black Sea.”
The Zvezda propaganda issue is quoting the pro-Russian journalist Seymour Hersh in its content, where he blames the USA for blowing up the NordStream pipelines.
On October 10th, Russian press secretary Maria Zakharova issued a statement regarding the Nord Stream.
Impact on Estonia and Finland
Eesti Gaas and Alexela, two key players in the natural gas distribution sector in Estonia and Finland, have reassured ERR that the temporary closure of the BalticConnector gas pipeline in Estonia won’t result in significant changes to gas prices for Estonian consumers. This is because there is an ample supply of gas in an underground storage facility located in Latvia, with additional deliveries coming through Klaipeda. However, in Finland, where gas supply relies heavily on terminals, this incident has caused a slight uptick in prices.
“If it turns out that Russia is indeed behind the damage to the Balticconnector and communication cable, it is likely a test of our preparedness,” said Marko Mihkelson, the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Estonian Parliament, during an interview on “Esimeses stuudios” (First Studio). He added that we must hope that the investigation will provide clearer answers than the case of the Nord Stream 2 sabotage.
According to Mihkelson, in addition to gas supply, data connectivity with the rest of the world is not at risk either because Estonia has a total of nine cables, two of which are underwater. “Our data communication services are not endangered,” he noted.
Targeting infrastructure is a common Russian tactic
Another common tactic observed in Russian invasions in Ukraine is the deliberate targeting of energy and communication infrastructure. These attacks are often carried out with the aim of sowing desperation among Ukrainians and pressuring them to surrender in the face of disrupted essential services. Since September 2022, Russia unleashed a series of missile and drone attacks on energy infrastructure as part of its invasion of Ukraine. These attacks notably extended beyond the confines of the battlefield, with a particular focus on civilian areas and critical power infrastructure. Such actions are widely regarded as war crimes under international law.
The images used are screenshots from the referenced pages.
